Baccarat Odds and House Edge Explained
The probabilities and house edge behind every baccarat bet, calculated step by step, and why scorecards cannot predict the next hand.
Short answer
With eight decks, Banker wins 45.86% of hands, Player 44.62% and Tie 9.52%. That gives house edges of about 1.06% on Banker with 5% commission, 1.24% on Player and 14.36% on a Tie paying 8:1. No-commission tables where a Banker 6 pays half raise the Banker edge to about 1.46%.
Baccarat has one of the lowest house edges on the casino floor, but only if you know which bet you are making. The three main wagers carry very different costs, and newer variants such as no-commission tables and side bets change the numbers again. This guide shows the probabilities for 8-deck punto banco, works through the maths behind each house edge, and explains why scorecards and “patterns” do not help you predict the next hand. You can check any of the figures yourself with our RTP and house edge calculator.
How punto banco works in brief
Online and live baccarat almost always uses the punto banco rules. You do not make decisions during the hand. You bet on one of three outcomes before the cards are dealt:
- Banker wins: pays 0.95 to 1 on a standard table (even money minus a 5% commission).
- Player wins: pays even money (1 to 1).
- Tie: usually pays 8 to 1. Some tables pay 9 to 1. If the hand is a tie, Banker and Player bets push (your stake is returned).
Each hand starts with two cards. Tens and picture cards count as zero, aces as one, and the total is the last digit of the sum, so 7 + 8 = 15 counts as 5. If either hand has 8 or 9 (a “natural”), both stand. Otherwise Player draws a third card on 0 to 5 and stands on 6 or 7. Banker’s draw then depends on its own total and on Player’s third card, following a fixed table. Because these rules are fixed, the probabilities of each outcome can be calculated exactly for any number of decks.
For a wider view of the game and where to find tables, see our baccarat page.
Probabilities of Banker, Player and Tie
The figures below are the exact outcome probabilities published by Wizard of Odds for different numbers of decks. Most online and live tables use eight decks.
| Decks | Banker wins | Player wins | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 decks | 45.8597% | 44.6247% | 9.5156% |
| 6 decks | 45.8653% | 44.6279% | 9.5069% |
| 1 deck | 45.9624% | 44.6760% | 9.3615% |
Banker wins slightly more often than Player because Banker acts second. Its drawing decision uses information about Player’s third card. That small advantage is the reason the casino charges a commission on Banker wins.
We also reproduced the 8-deck figures with our own exact enumeration of every possible deal (all card orders weighted by their probability, using the standard drawing rules). The results matched to six decimal places. That calculation also gives one more number we need later: the probability that Banker wins with a total of exactly 6 is 5.3864% with eight decks.
House edge for each bet, step by step
The house edge is the average loss as a share of the amount bet. To find it, calculate the expected value of a 1-unit bet: add up each result multiplied by its probability. A negative expected value is the house edge.
Banker bet with 5% commission
Banker wins 0.95 with probability 0.458597, loses 1 with probability 0.446247, and pushes on a tie.
Expected value = 0.95 × 0.458597 − 1 × 0.446247 = 0.435667 − 0.446247 = −0.010579
The house edge is about 1.06%. On average you lose a little over one cent per unit bet.
Player bet
Player wins 1 with probability 0.446247 and loses 1 with probability 0.458597.
Expected value = 0.446247 − 0.458597 = −0.012351, a house edge of about 1.24%.
Tie bet
At 8 to 1, the Tie wins 8 with probability 0.095156 and loses 1 the rest of the time (0.904844).
Expected value = 8 × 0.095156 − 0.904844 = 0.761248 − 0.904844 = −0.143596, a house edge of about 14.36%.
At 9 to 1 the same calculation gives 9 × 0.095156 − 0.904844 = −0.048440, or about 4.84%. That is a big improvement, but it is still more than four times the cost of the Banker bet.
A note on ties and “per resolved hand” figures
The figures above count every hand, including ties where Banker and Player bets simply push. Some sources quote the edge per hand that is actually decided. On that basis, our calculation gives about 1.17% for Banker and 1.36% for Player. Both methods are valid. Just make sure you compare figures calculated the same way.
No-commission baccarat
Many live tables remove the 5% commission and instead reduce the payout in one specific case. In Evolution’s No Commission Baccarat, for example, a winning Banker bet is paid at 0.5 to 1 (half your stake) when Banker wins with a total of 6. Every other Banker win pays even money. Player and Tie bets are unchanged.
Using the 8-deck probabilities above:
- Banker wins with a total other than 6: 0.458597 − 0.053864 = 0.404733, paid 1 to 1
- Banker wins with 6: 0.053864, paid 0.5 to 1
- Player wins: 0.446247, Banker bet loses
Expected value = 0.404733 + 0.5 × 0.053864 − 0.446247 = 0.404733 + 0.026932 − 0.446247 = −0.014582
The house edge on the no-commission Banker bet is about 1.46%, compared with 1.06% on a commission table. Removing the commission makes the bet feel cheaper, but the “Banker 6 pays half” rule costs more than the 5% it replaces. If both versions are available, the commission table is the cheaper Banker bet. The Player bet costs the same 1.24% at both.
Commission levels compared
Wizard of Odds also lists the Banker bet’s 8-deck expected value at different commission rates. It shows how sensitive the bet is to the commission.
| Commission on Banker wins | Banker expected value (8 decks) |
|---|---|
| 5% | −1.058% |
| 4% | −0.599% |
| 3% | −0.141% |
| 2.75% | −0.026% |
Side bets and their cost
Side bets pay more but cost far more on average. The table summarises bets whose rules are published.
| Bet | Typical payout | House edge (8 decks) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker (5% commission) | 0.95 to 1 | 1.06% | Wizard of Odds; calculation above |
| Player | 1 to 1 | 1.24% | Wizard of Odds; calculation above |
| Banker, no commission (6 pays 1:2) | 1 to 1, or 0.5 to 1 on a Banker 6 | 1.46% | Our calculation |
| Tie | 8 to 1 | 14.36% | Wizard of Odds |
| Tie | 9 to 1 | 4.84% | Wizard of Odds |
| Player Pair or Banker Pair | 11 to 1 | 10.36% | Wizard of Odds |
| Super 6 (no-commission tables) | 15 to 1 | 13.82% | Our calculation from P(Banker wins with 6) |
The Super 6 figure works like this: the bet wins 15 with probability 0.053864 and loses 1 otherwise, so 15 × 0.053864 − 0.946136 = −0.138176. Evolution lists 15 to 1 for this bet. If another table pays less, the edge rises sharply, so read the paytable before you bet.
Multiplier variants such as Lightning Baccarat add random multipliers to some winning cards and charge a fee on every bet. Evolution describes a 20% “Lightning Fee” added to your total bet. The return of these games depends on the multiplier distribution. That is set in the game rules, not in the basic card maths, so check the return shown in the game’s help screen.
Worked example: what 100 hands cost on each bet
Suppose you play 100 hands at 10 per hand, so 1,000 in total stakes. The expected loss is the total staked multiplied by the house edge:
| Bet every hand on | House edge | Expected loss on 1,000 staked |
|---|---|---|
| Banker (5% commission) | 1.06% | 10.58 |
| Player | 1.24% | 12.35 |
| Banker, no commission | 1.46% | 14.58 |
| Tie at 9 to 1 | 4.84% | 48.44 |
| Tie at 8 to 1 | 14.36% | 143.60 |
These are long-run averages. In any one session the actual result will swing well above or below them, especially on the Tie, which wins less than one hand in ten. The average is still the most reliable guide to what a bet costs you over time.
Why patterns and scorecards do not predict the next hand
Live and online tables often show “roads” or scorecards: grids that record past Banker, Player and Tie results. Some players use them to look for streaks or alternations. They are a record of what happened, not a forecast.
- The drawing rules are fixed. Neither the dealer nor the player can change how a hand is played, so there is no strategy to read from the history.
- Past results do not make an outcome “due”. Wizard of Odds describes the gambler’s fallacy, the belief that something that has “not happened recently becomes overdue”. It also notes that betting systems “fail to beat casino games with a house advantage, they can’t even dent it.”
- Card removal effects are tiny. Baccarat is dealt from a shoe, so earlier cards do slightly change the remaining deck. Wizard of Odds analysed card counting for baccarat. Its recommended count only lowers the combined house edge from 1.06% (Banker only) to 1.01%. In its table covering running counts from −25 to +25, every Banker and Player expected value is still negative. A scorecard that records only who won holds even less information than a card count.
Progressive staking systems, where you raise your bet after a loss, do not change the house edge either. They change the size and timing of wins and losses, but your average loss is still about 1.06% of everything you stake on Banker. Our roulette odds guide works through the Martingale system in detail, and the same maths applies here.
Practical takeaways
- Bet Banker or Player. Both cost less than 1.25% per unit staked. Banker on a 5% commission table is the cheapest standard bet.
- Check how commission is charged. If a table is “no commission”, look for the rule that replaces it. A Banker 6 paying 1:2 raises the Banker edge to about 1.46%.
- Treat Tie and side bets as expensive. At 8 to 1, the Tie costs over 13 times as much as Banker per unit staked.
- Ignore streaks. Use the scorecard for entertainment if you like, but not for decisions.
- Watch the pace. Speed tables deal far more hands per hour, so your expected loss per hour rises even though the house edge is the same. Our live casino guide shows the calculation.
- Set a budget before you play. Deposit and session limits are the most reliable way to keep the long-run cost in check. See how to set deposit limits and our responsible gambling page.
If you also play other table games, compare these figures with our blackjack basic strategy guide. Blackjack can have a lower edge than baccarat, but only if you play correctly.
FAQ
What are the odds of Banker winning in baccarat?
With eight decks, Banker wins 45.86% of hands, Player 44.62% and Tie 9.52%. Excluding ties, Banker wins about 50.7% of decided hands, which is why Banker wins are charged a commission.
Is the Banker or Player bet better?
Banker on a 5% commission table has the lower house edge, about 1.06% against 1.24% for Player. On a no-commission table where a Banker 6 pays half, the Banker edge rises to about 1.46%. The Player bet then becomes the cheaper of the two.
Why is the Tie bet so bad?
A tie happens about 9.5% of the time. A fair payout would be roughly 9.5 to 1, but most tables pay 8 to 1, which leaves a house edge of about 14.36%. At 9 to 1 the edge falls to about 4.84%, still well above the main bets.
Does the number of decks matter?
Only slightly for the main bets: Banker stays about 1.06% and Player about 1.24% with six or eight decks. Deck count matters more for side bets. Wizard of Odds lists the Pair bet at 10.36% with eight decks and 29.41% with one deck at an 11 to 1 payout.
Can you beat baccarat by tracking the scorecard?
No. Past results do not make any outcome more likely, and the drawing rules are fixed. Even full card counting only lowers the edge slightly, and every count Wizard of Odds analysed still left a negative expected value.
Sources
- Wizard of Odds: Baccarat basics (probabilities, house edges, drawing rules, commission table, pair bets)
- Wizard of Odds: Card counting in baccarat
- Wizard of Odds: Betting systems
- Wizard of Odds: House edge of casino games compared
- Evolution: Live baccarat (No Commission, Super 6, Lightning Baccarat, side bet payouts)
Last updated October 25, 2026 by the Gambling Hero editorial team.